Weltmeister generating green electricity

Update August 2011¹

A deeper insight in Germany's renewable electricity market including photovoltaics, in 2010

Meer inzicht in de Duitse markt voor hernieuwbare elektriciteit incl. zonnestroom, in 2010

¹ With data from the Übertragungs-Netzbetreiber in Germany

Samenvatting

Renewable electricity generation in Germany under the EEG Law
incentive regime: production results up till 2010

Grafieken/Graphs
1. Electricity production within and beyond EEG legislation
2. Renewable electricity production per category (stacked)
3. Renewable electricity production per category: shares in total consumption
4. Renewable electricity production per category (adjacent)
5. 100% diagram with shares per category in total renewable EEG mix
6. EEG electricity production (accumulated) and total electricity consumption
7. EEG electricity production and YOY growth (%)
8. Average cost of EEG electricity (feed-in) and EEG Quote
9. Direct feed-in costs of EEG electricity components and accumulated volume
10. Development of EEG Umlage (kWh fee for payment of feed-in)
11. Shares of EEG electricity produced in four main grid regions in BRD
12. Renewable electricity directly marketed beyond EEG feed-in reach

Links

BRD PV-marktanalyses 2011 2010-II 2010-I 2009 2008 2007 def. 2007 cf. BSW 2006 2005

Samenvatting

Op deze pagina worden in grafische vorm de resultaten gepresenteerd van de jaar rapportages van de BDEW (Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft), die in Duitsland bij moet houden hoeveel hernieuwbare elektriciteit wordt geproduceerd, aangevuld met de laatste gegevens (2010) die door de zogenaamde ÜNB's moeten worden aangeleverd, de overkoepelende hoogspannings-netbeheerders. Weer een ander ambtelijk instituut, het Bundesnetzagentur, houdt bij hoeveel capaciteit aan zonnestroom systemen er in Duitsland bij worden gezet, en houdt de vinger aan de pols van de netbewaking en talloze andere activiteiten, met name gerelateerd aan de elektriciteitsmarkt. Voor de meest recente, uitgebreid geïllustreerde overzichten van de Bundesnetzagentur data, zie de separate webpagina's op Polder PV (2010 resp. 2011).

Wat de energie opbrengst betreft, bereikte Duitsland eind 2010 een spectaculair volume van 80,7 TWh hernieuwbare elektriciteit die onder de EEG condities in de vorm van de bekende, langjarig vast uitgekeerde Einspeise Vergütungen ("feed-in tariffs") aan honderdduizenden decentrale opwekkers werden uitbetaald. Op het totale binnenlandse stroomverbruik (485,5 TWh) was het EEG aandeel al opgelopen tot 16,6% in dat jaar. Windenergie had een teruglopend aandeel van 46,4% van alle EEG opties (vooral vanwege het feit dat 2010 een slecht windjaar was), biomassa 31,2%, en het snoeihard gegroeide marktsegment voor zonnestroom was al de derde contribuant met 14,5% van het totaal aan opgewekte EEG stroom. Wat neerkomt op maar liefst 2,41% van de totale stroom consumptie in Duitsland in 2010... Er werd een record hoeveelheid fysiek bemeten fotovoltaïsch opgewekte elektriciteit van 11,7 TWh vastgesteld in dat jaar. Wat bijna evenveel is als de jaarproductie van drie Borssele kernsplijters op maximaal vermogen.

Op deze verder Engelstalige webpagina laat Polder PV in grafiekvorm diverse aspecten van de door de hoofd-netbeheerders (ÜNB's) gepubliceerde cijfers zien, en wordt uitgebreide uitleg onder de grafieken gepresenteerd.

Renewable electricity generation in Germany under the EEG Law incentive regime: production results up till 2010

Fig. 1
This graph shows total volume of renewable electricity produced in Germany in the period 2000-2010. The dark green top segments of the columns show the electricity that is not covered by the renewable electricity law (EEG - Erneuerbares Energien Gesetz) implemented in April 2000. The large, still strongly growing lower parts of the columns in light green are covered under the EEG Law, and all feed-in eligible is paid for by the net managers. The large accumulated sums of feed-in payments are sold in priority on the Leipziger Strombörse, after which the remaining sum of money needed is renumerated from the electricity bills of almost all Germans via a complicated, but brilliantly designed administrative mechanism. One of the many advantages of that system is that investors large and small willing to build renewable electricity producing installations, as well as the ultimate financers of the feed-in (the electricity consuming Germans themselves) are not confronted with all kinds of administrative nonsense. All procedures, calculations, and financial administrative work is being carried out on the background by the net managers, the ÜNB's (high voltage network administrators), and controlled by several administrative bodies. It is the core of the success story of German's Green Electricity Revolution.

Note that the EEG officially has been launched on April 1, 2000. Hence, the production result under the EEG umbrella (hatched column segment) is not representative for a full calender year. The production in the first three months of 2000 has been allocated to the "non-EEG" renewable portion.

Fig. 2
In this graph only the renewable electrictiy production eligible for EEG feed-in tariffs (German: "Einspeise Vergütung") is given for each year, split-up into the the main components given by BDEW and the ÜNB's in their yearly overviews. The results of all components are stacked, total production per year is given (in GWh) in bold numbers on top of each column. Data for wind off-shore and for geothermal production are not shown (minor contributions, not visible on the present scale).

Note that the results for the year 2000 are only available as of the first of April, the official start of the EEG Law in Germany (hence: 2000 "under represented"). Also please note that the main component "gases" (landfill-, water purification-, and natural gas from coal mines) has been incorporated in the "hydropower" data up till 2003 (hatched column segments).

Total renewable electricity production under the EEG Law preconditions has accumulated to a spectacular 80,7 Terawatthours in 2010, with no end in sight.

Having strongly grown in the earlier years, windpower has slackened off due to a combination of poor wind years and decommissioning and/or retrofit of many older wind park sites. Biomass has strongly increased, with fermentation as an important subcategory. Hydropower is a constant with only modest potential for further increase. Photovoltaics is the fastest grower, rapidly evolving into one of the most potent renewable electricity sources as further cost reductions occur the moment this sentence is written. In a few years time its impact has risen from a status "negligible" in 2003 to the third place in 2010. Thereby bypassing hydropower in 2009 (reasonable incentives up to 5 MW, larger scale hydropower is only supported under EEG Law with low incentives and high restrictions). And producing ten times as much direct solar-derived energy in 2010 as it was delivering in 2004-2005. In only 5 years time the photovoltaics boom started a true decentralised revolution in renewable electricity production.

Fig. 3
Figure comparable to that shown in Fig. 2, but now the share of each component is shown with respect to total electricity consumption (all "types" included, green to dark grey) in Germany in the same year. While total EEG "mix" share has already risen to a respectable 16,62% in 2010, the dominant component still is windpower (although it has been a very "bad" wind year), with 7,72% of total consumption. Biomass is second with 5,18%, photovoltaics has reached a level of 2,41%, more than double the impact of hydropower (with 1,04%). EEG-eligible "green gases" had only 0,24% and - for now - wind off-shore and geothermal still are in their nascent stage (4 and 1 promille, respectively).

Fig. 4
In this graph the separate options are shown adjacent to each other for each year, and in the order of impact such as has become apparent in 2010. Maxima for each option are given in bold numbers (only the minor contributors have been omitted for clarity). For wind power, 2008 has been the best year sofar, with 40,6 TWh of physical production under EEG conditions. Biomass and photovoltaics reached their maximum in 2010, although much more might be expected as of 2011, of course. A first insight of the strongly increasing impact was given recently, with photovoltaics claiming already 9,7 TWh production in the first half year of 2011. For table with numbers and Dutch analysis, see article published on August 29, 2011. For biomass, production topped at 25,1 TWh in 2010, for the solar colleagues it was already 11,7 TWh in that full year (equivalent to the maximum year production of almost 3 "Borssele" nuclear power plants in the Netherlands). Hydropower had its heyday in 2007, with 5,5 TWh (note that the results before 2004 include the "3 gases" later reported separately!). Not shown in numbers, the "gases" probably peaked in 2005, with 3,1 TWh. It is expected that in particular wind off-shore will make serious progress if delays in building the complicated, and expensive wind turbine parks will be solved.

Fig. 5
One hundred percent diagram showing the impact of the various "components" contributing to the EEG renewable electricity pool in Germany. 100% in this graph is all EEG electricity, for 2010 that was a volume of 80.699 GWh. That has been a formidable 7,68% increase with respect to the volume produced in 2009 (74.942 GWh).

In this graph the diminishing impact of long-time dominator of the German renewable electricity market, windpower, is apparent. Of course, this can change if 2011 becomes a "good" wind year, and a considerable contingent of new wind turbines is being built or older wind parks retro-fitted with much more powerful apparatuses. Also, the diminishing impact of hydropower is clear, as well as that for the three "gases". However, in contrast, the new kids on the block, biomass and photovoltaics, are increasing their market shares at the cost of the rest. In 2010 these two combined, already claimed 45,7%. This used to be only 5,9% in the year 2000. Their collective impact has become almost eight times larger, in only 10 years time.

Fig. 6
Impact of EEG-eligible renewable electricity on total consumption of the "wanted" stuff in Germany. In gray: total consumption (refer for scale to left Y-axis), taking a temporary plunge in economic crisis year 2009 (in particular a result of tempered industrial activity), but regaining strength in 2010 up till 485,5 TWh. That still is almost 2% less consumption than in record year 2006. Note, again, that 2000 is only recorded as of April 2000, hence not representative for a "full calender year".

In green the EEG electricity production is shown (scale on right Y-axis), with 80,7 TWh already being produced in 2010, resulting in a spectacular 16,62% share of EEG volume in total electricity consumption in Germany (see Fig. 3). If one realises how heavily industrialized the country is, this is a phenomenal accomplishment. For which the late Herman Scheer and his companions should be lauded and praised straight from the heart.

Fig. 7
Realisation of renewable electricity under EEG conditions (green columns with data on top, right Y-axis), and year-on-year (YOY) growth with respect to realised energy production volume in the previous year in yellow columns (data in black, percentage YOY growth, at bottom; left Y-axis). The high score for 2000-2001 is artificial since the volume for 2000 has not been established for the whole year (hence: open column with dashed outline). High growth rates up till almost 38% were seen in the periods 2001-2002, 2003-2004 (EEG Novelle 2004), and in 2006-2007. Because the market has grown so strong, high YOY data are extremely difficult to maintain. However, growth rates of 7 to 7,7% in 2008 and 2010, and a respectable 4,5% in crisis year 2009, are the dream coming true for Germany. Many western countries see this politically "willed" (r)evolution with envy.

Fig. 8
One of the heaviest contested aspects of the EEG Law is its "costs". However, many people involved in those "discussions" turn a blind eye to the benefits and never talk or report about them (for attempt based on research by BMU, see this page). This seems to be "one-sided press manipulation", and alas many people do not dig into the paperwork to get the full picture. "Costs" are relatively easy to calculate (because of the brilliant structure of the EEG Law dictating 20 year fixed and clear-cut tariffs that are published on many websites). The "benefits" however, are rather hard to decipher. But they are there, of course, and if one calculates them into the "Big Picture", the EEG Law is cheap in the long run. And sustainable policy always has to focus on the future, otherwise it can not be "sustainable" (in the strict sense of the word). Only stupid, short-sighted politicians do not want to see that, and often they lead their countries into blind alleys infested with fossils and nukes, with desasters looming on the horizon.

With respect to this figure two main data are represented. First the famous "EEG Quote", which is the ratio between the volume of renewable kWh's being produced by EEG-eligible sources in a year and the difference between total electricity consumption and the portion assigned to the so-called "priviliged parties" in Germany (the companies consuming huge amounts of electricity, such as aluminium smelters, railways, etc.). The ratio obtained this way has been the basis for calculating the so-called "EEG Umlage", the extra fee paid by the "non-priviliged" parties in German economy: all civilians, associations, and almost all companies, for each kWh consumed. Even the almost 900.000 PV-system owners, that still have a normal electricity meter recording their consumption, must pay that EEG Umlage (status: 3,53 Eurocent/kWh in 2011). The EEG Quote, 19,9% in 2010 (almost one fifth of electricity consumed should be EEG electricity), is given in orange columns (refer to right Y-axis for scale).

The second important feature is the "average cost" of the EEG electricity that has been paid for to all EEG eligible producers (many different tariffs for all options, installations sizes, bonuses, etc.). The average is driven upwards by large amounts of photovoltaic electricity (as of now still the most expensive type, but with strongest visible and proven cost reduction of all renewables) and, don't forget about that, biomass, for which many bonuses are available. After the complete volume of the EEG electricity has been bought (by the regional net managers), and transferred to the 4 ÜNB's in Germany, it is marketed with priority on the Leipziger Strombörse. After subtraction of administrative costs, a certain amount "to be paid" remains. And that amount is divided by the volume of kWh consumed in a certain year by the "non-priviliged" parties (a small segment is separated and has to be paid for by priviliged parties, for max. 0,05 Eurocent/kWh). This results in a certain bonus on the kWh price to be paid by all German consumers, and that is the magic, but often misunderstood "EEG Umlage". It is fixed by Bundesnetzagentur once in the year (mid October, new tariff for the next year), on basis of prognoses with the latest market data available. Adjustments can be made afterwards if market realisation has turned out to be significantly less or above expectations.

There is discussion with respect to the basic assumptions on which those calculations are done, but that is beyond the scope of this statistical analysis.

Fig. 9
The subtotals of accumulated feed-in costs paid to the producers of renewable electricity (coloured columns, refer to left Y-axis) and the total cost for all options accumulated (broad open columns with gray outline and white numbers, right Y-axis). Only for photovoltaics the data have been given separately for clarity in black numbers. Its rapid growth and its highest tariffs per kWh (although sinking most rapidly as compared to other options) result in the largest component of the EEG feed-in costs: in 2010 it has increased to a record 5,1 billion Euro, outrunning the contributions for windpower (3,3 billion Euro) and even biomass (4,2 billion Euro). Notwithstanding these "impressive" figures, it remains a fact of life that all the feed-in together, including that of the also rapidly evolving biomass options ("expensive" in particular because of several bonus components), still results in "only" 3,53 Eurocent/kWh extra fee to pay (in the year 2011) for the most impressive sustainable electricity revolution visible on this planet, see next figure. Countries can do far worse than that (e.g., Italy will pay a hefty price due to its far too lucrative feed-in tariffs for solar...).

Total feed-in costs for all EEG options amounted to 12,8 billion Euro in 2010. If one does not want industrial revolution in renewables (and hence: cost reduction due to scale effects), and if one is opposed to a more liberal, broadly accepted, decentralised, cleaner, power-monger-breaking monopolistic energetic society, one could say that is an absurd price to "pay". But young people who grow up in a world in which multiple amounts of that money (that no one is able to comprehend what they "should stand for") are wasted on the most bizarre "economic" scenarios that humanity has seen in Europe, might think otherwise. So far, the "support" for Greece with multi-billion dollar "loans" has not resulted in hard, physical and/or positive spin-off. On the other hand, Germany's EEG Law certainly does generate crystal-clear results (and: the bill is paid by its own civilians). Only conservatives might want to abolish such a succesful mega-operation. Because the succes of the EEG Law is threatening their position in power politics. If you don't mind about that, it is good to take a bet on legislation that makes the difference. Germany's EEG has shown how that can be accomplished.

Fig. 10
Development of the EEG Umlage in Germany, the extra fee paid on top of the kWh price paid by (nearly) all electricity consumers (including the hundreds of thousands of civilians with a PV-filled roof above their heads). A combination of factors has driven that fee to the level of 3,53 Eurocent/kWh for the year 2011. Very strong growth of the solar market is only one of them (world record sales in 2010 were an important driver for the Umlage in 2011). The crisis year 2009 another. Less electricity consumption in Germany is also a driving factor, since a rising amount of EEG electricity will have to be renumerated from a sinking amount of ("gray") electricity consumed on the market. If development of the photovoltaic market is taking the brakes, growth of the Umlage might be stalled or, in theory, even might become a little less. The bureaucrats of Bundesnetzagentur will establish the Umlage for 2012 as soon as they have all the hard numbers available later in 2011.

For the years 2001 and 2003 no data were available (values estimated).

Note: For the only slightly increased EEG Umlage for the year 2012 (€ct 3,592), see analysis published October 16, 2011 (including updated graph).

Fig. 11
EEG electricity production distiributed among the four big ÜNB's (high-voltage network manager regions, for gross location see small map) in 2010 in Germany. 100% scale = 80,7 TWh. Shares differ between the ÜNB's, with high impact on the former E.ON net manager region, that has been taken over by Dutch high-voltage network owner TenneT, and now is named TenneT TSO (orange segment). It has 33,1 TWh of total EEG production in its large region (41%), which includes the wind turbine rich northwestern part of Germany, as well as the largest part of Bavaria, which is world champion in the realisation of PV-installed capacity (end of 2010 app. 6,4 GWp).

East Germany, which has been the area covered by (Swedish) Vattenfall's high-voltage net manager, now is under control of independent 50HzT (with participation of Belgium's net manager ELIA; light blue segment). It includes massive amounts of wind turbine capacity, to which in recent years also an impressive portfolio of huge PV-parks is being added (several in the active state of Brandenburg). Hamburg ("city state") is also included in the 50HzT area. The producers on the premises of the 50HzT managers have generated 24,8 TWh of total EEG contributions, 31% of the volume.

The next of the four ÜNB regions is the one formerly attributed to the big RWE utility company, with its core in Germany's most heavily populated Ruhrgebiet area with lots of coal power plants (black coal and lignite firing installations). A large region bordering France, Belgium and the southeastern part of Netherlands, with the peculiar addition of the western part of Bavaria (hence adding a lot of photovoltaic capacity on top of the volume of the most popular of renewables in Nordrhein-Westfalen). Its region is now under control of independent Amprion (with support by Commerz Real), produced over 16 TWh in 2010, and thus had a share of 20% in total EEG-paid electricity generation.

Finally, the rest, 6,7 TWh has been generated on the soil of the relative modest ÜNB region of EnBW TNG, where Germany's renewable revolution has been initiated with the anti-nuclear protest movement in and around Baden-Württemberg's student city Freiburg, long ago. It produced over 8% of total EEG volume.

Fig. 12
Beyond the EEG feed-in, it is possible in Germany to market the renewable electricity by yourself, and try to get a good price for the wanted product. This is called "Direktvermarktung". There is a very strict clausule in the EEG Law that explicitly forbids "double-sale" ("Doppelvermarktung") of EEG-eligible (and accepted) electricity. Hence: if one chooses to market the electricity (this can be done for each month separately), any application for EEG-based feed-in tariffs is automatically blocked. Direktvermarktung is also registered and administered by the ÜNB administrations, for which the first result for 2010 is shown in the figure above.

Although the volumes traded as such are not yet large (100% in this figure stands for a volume of "only" 1,59 TWh, which is only 2% of the volume of electricity attributed to the EEG mechanism), they will have to grow, since it is the explicit will of the German government that renewables will ultimately be fully incorporated in the "market place" (whatever that is).

Most striking in the graph depicted above is the dominant factor "gases", with 803 GWh claiming almost 51% of this young market in 2010, followed by hydropower with 616 GWh (39%), and wind on-shore (159 GWh, 10%). Of course, the first two options are highly predictable sources. Wind on land is fairly well predictable, and Germany has massive amounts of wind power in live production. Biomass and photovoltaics have been mentioned in the data, but their contributions (probably resulting from the magnitude of the offered "market price") are negligible: 0,6% for biomass, only 1 promille for photovoltaics. Of course, this might change in the near future.

Links

EEG production year reports originally published by BDEW, now to be found on the collective website of the high-voltage network managers, "EEG-KWK.net":

http://www.eeg-kwk.net/de/EEG_Jahresabrechnungen.htm

BDEW = Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft
BMU = Bundesministerium für Umwelt und Reaktorsicherheit (Environment Ministry)
BNA = Bundesnetzagentur
ÜNB = Übertragungs-Netzbetreiber (companies responsible for the high-voltage network and for grid balance in Germany). Their collective website is named EEG-KWK.net.

Erneuerbare Energien = special website of BMU exclusively devoted to renewable energy full with hard core data and many, many graphs on the renewable energy revolution in Germany.

Webpagina gepubliceerd dd. 23 september 2011.