(Growth of) solar electricity (PV) in the Netherlands¹

PV market data Netherlands (CBS statistics) status: up till 2009

Graphs:
1. New sales to end users per year
2. New PV-capacity reported per year
3. Accumulation of sales to end users
4. Accumulated PV-capacity (2 graphs)
5. Difference of sales minus new PV-capacity per year
6. Roughly estimated accumulation of solar electricity production
7. Trade in PV modules
8. Turnover (business) and Research budget in M. Euro
9. PV and jobs

Discrepancy of CBS and CertiQ data?

First CBS data "renewable" electricity for 2009 here
Older overview CBS "renewable" energy for 2005, with many graphs here

Certified production of photovoltaic electricity (PV) in the Netherlands (CertiQ data) status: end of October 2010

Graphs Certiq data
Accumulated certified PV capacity
Yearly CertiQ data (from monthly reports)
Comparison of Flanders <<>> Netherlands monthly growth
Factual update

>>> See also: Yearly report 2009 complete update/revision! <<<
(graphs and tables)

¹ Also to be read as "An inconvenient truth"...

PV in the Netherlands market data update 2009

Results from the preliminary data from the Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) for PV market development in the Netherlands (2009, data published July 15, 2010). See English comments in the figure captions. Note also the "discrepancy subject". The previous, final Dutch-language report for the year 2008 (74 pages) can be downloaded from the CBS site via this web-page. Analysis for "solar" data, see my comments on August 19, 2009 (Dutch, includes solar thermal installations). Direct access of actual PV statistics data on the CBS website via this link.

Data © Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2010 (see contact page)

Fig. CBS 4B. Graph comparable to Fig. 4A, but with two categories and adjacent instead of stacked. Yellow columns: all grid-connected PV-installations accumulated per year (CBS report 2008 definitive, 2009 data preliminary). Blue columns: all PV-systems accumulated per year (grid-connected and autonomous/off-grid). Autonomous category remains small, the market is driven by the grid-connected category like (almost) everywhere in the world. Accumulation grid-connected in the Netherlands in 2009: 62,6 MWp. All systems together (data with questionmarks put by Polder PV): 67,9 MWp.

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Fig. CBS 5. Graph depicting the difference between the CBS data "capacity delivered to end users/installers" minus "new capacity installed" per year (note: Y-scale in kilowattpeak, kWp). The remaining surplus "above 0" could be described as "in store" or "waiting for installation" with the installers (or, highly unlikely, with the end-users). Surplus "below 0" could be an indication that modules actually installed were not obtained via installers or system houses known by CBS or its data suppliers. Note: an increasing number of "suppliers" are active on the Dutch market (over 130 mostly small companies fighting for market share). Many of them are, however, not a member of the branche organisation Holland Solar. In 2003 as well as in 2008 a "considerable" difference of around minus 50 kWp was the result of this calculation for the most important category ("grid-connected rest"). This could indicate imported modules from abroad by end-users themselves, highly unlikely because Holland Solar/CBS would not have the means of tracing those "installed" modules (and therefore not appearing in the actual CBS data). Or it could point to installers trading in "gray ware" that are known by H.S./CBS. Even E-companies (orange columns) sometimes apparently installed more modules than were "officially sold" to them, especially in the year 2007. It could also result from a net yearly effect of installing older stocks of PV modules when the national market was almost dead and activity was almost exclusively buying and selling modules from/to abroad (2004 up till the second half of 2008). Note the huge amount of - apparent - positive surplus (in stock?) of autonomous PV module capacity (blue columns). An explanation is not given for these - for the small Dutch market - considerable numbers. 2009 data are not yet known since actual (or: perceived) "installed capacity" has not yet been published by CBS.

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Fig. CBS 6. CBS also mentions three other data sets for PV in the Netherlands in their definitive report for 2008, and in their latest, separate update for "production of renewable energy" in the Netherlands (full-statistical overview here). For only one this is illustrated here (because these three datasets are directly interdependent via fixed calculation factors): electricity production by the accumulated PV capacity depicted in the earlier graphs (in Gigawatthours, GWh, see Fig. 6), "avoided" use of fossil (actually also nuclear) primary energy (in TeraJoules), and the avoided CO2 emissions, mainly coming from the coal and gas-fired power plants in the Netherlands (in kilotonnes). The older data can be found in table 5.1.1 in the CBS 2008 report (p. 38). In Figure 6 I present the so-called "production" from the accumulated capacities given by CBS, including 2009 update. These are, however, highly questionable data, since the production is not measured, but instead "calculated"! And for these calculations CBS uses (as it does for many years) absurd basic data, mentioned on p. 40 of the CBS report for 2008. Data coming from a so-called "Protocol Monitoring Sustainable Energy" from 2006 (original SenterNovem publication, presently under review). These highly questionable data are: (1) grid-connected PV systems "producing 700 kWh per kW a year", and (2) autonomous PV installations "producing 400 kWh per kW a year".

I have serious objections against these phantasy "basic" data. Even if you would not consider them as "serious production numbers", these assumptions do not belong in a "hard numbers reporting" statistics overview - certainly not in a "serious" national report! I can tell, since my over ten years old, suboptimal grid-connected multicrystalline PV system produces, on average between 900 and 950 kWh/kWp a year, even with old inverters sometimes suffering from heat stress and not producing electricity for half a day. There are many other systems in the Netherlands producing at least 800-900 kWh/kWp, in the coastal region and in regions like in Friesland often as much as (or even over) 1.000 kWh/kWp a year. A grid-connected thin-film amorphous silicon system in the "sun-poor" eastern part of the country possibly also will be able to produce such extensive output, because it appears to be very effective in lower light conditions, as revealed by Rob de Bree from Siderea.nl, who has developed a remarkable accurate simulation model for photovoltaics. The old "SenterNovem" data of 700 for "grid-connected" is absolutely wrong, totally obsolete, and far too low, making any assumptions on "calculated production" a farce and the CBS outcome at least highly questionable. Certainly not "fit" to use in comparisons with hard-measured data from other nations...

With respect to autonomous systems: almost no one knows what comes out of these small island installations. In addition: these systems often are applied because they are available on the market, and in many cases do not "avoid" fossil-based electricity production. There will have to be a very detailed specification of the autonomous systems sold, before any "fossil-avoiding" kWh production can be claimed for these systems.

Taken all this into account, what comes out of this wet-fingered fairy tale CBS calculation is 38 GWh of assumed accumulated production of solar electricity in the Netherlands in the year 2008 (equally, for avoided primary "fossil energy" 330 TeraJoule is given, the avoided CO2 emission would amount to 23 kilotonnes). Even considered far too low because of reasons given above, the 38 GWh "assumed production" is almost next to nothing, taking into account the long time that the Netherlands has been "experimenting" with this fascinating technique. According to the accountant-approved BDEW year report for 2008 (published July 27, 2009) Germany has already produced 4.419,8 GWh in 2008 by their half-a-million or so PV installations. 116 times as much, for grid-connected ("EEG") systems only, and all actually measured on a monthly basis (or even more frequently) as proof for the feed-in payment rights fixed into the EEG law.

In addition, Flanders, which has a population 2,7 times as small as the Netherlands, and that has started only seriously with solar in 2006, already had approved 33,6 GWh for certified "guarantees of origin" (GVO's, one GVO stands for 1 MWh) for solar electricity in 2008. With still a huge number of certificates awaiting approval for that year. In 2009 already 139,1 GWh of GVO's were issued by the VREG for Flanders, as stated in their May 31 (2010) report, with a flood of new certificates awaiting approval (hence, in one year time, overhauling the Dutch production with great strides). Flanders had almost seven times the grid-connected capacity accumulated by the Netherlands, end of June 2010, and is still growing fast with implementation of photovoltaics.

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Fig. CBS 7. The inhabitants of the Netherlands ("the Dutch") in optima forma: trade. Hard numbers apparently are scarce, in the original CBS publications (CBS year reports and StatLine downloads) a "cross" ("x") in the data section is explained as "secret - CBS has the data but cannot publish them because of contractual secrecy obligations". Data can change in updates. The May 12, 2009 report published 58 instead of the ultimate 65 MWp exported modules reported for the year 2008. Looking at the trend in 2004-2006, with import of modules (green) only slightly higher than the export numbers (blue), one can imagine that the only interesting activity for the few market players in the Netherlands was, and increasingly has become: importing cheap modules and selling them for a "good price" abroad. The remaining little bit of capacity was either sold on the small domestic market or further traded with or by second parties ("tussenhandel"), either directly from the imports, or from older stock present (grey column).

This is shown clearly in the preliminary 2009 numbers: a considerable volume of 127 MWp of PV-modules (doubling of 2008 volume) has been exported, the other data, however, are considered "secret". Since only something like 11 MWp has actually been installed in the Netherlands in 2009 (Fig. 1), it is crystal clear that the biggest profits in the homebase of the Dutch are to be found in the trade segment encompassing a volume that is eleven times bigger.

It is also possible that, for example, some of the MWp solar parcs that the Dutch company Scheuten Solar has realized (and will build) in Puglia in southern Italy are part of this trade channel: "import" from their German Multisol® module factory in Gelsenkirchen via their Dutch main office in Venlo and "export" of those modules to Italy. No details are given by CBS as to the nature of the "traded" volumes, so, again, many questions remain unanswered.

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Fig. CBS 8. Financial "results" from and in the PV sector in millions of Euro's (one million = 1.000.000). In blue the annual turnover (in particular revealing the effects of the "interesting business called export yield minus cheap import cost"). From the May 12, 2009 report to the definitive 2009 CBS data published a quarter later, the turnover data for 2008 has risen from 382,3 to 413,0 million Euro, an increase of 8% (in app. 3 months time), most likely to be attributed to the strong increase in the export data (Figure 7). Growth percentages (Year On Year) have been given in between in dark blue numbers. In particular surprising is the fact that after a few years "considerable" growth (mind you: in a very small "market"), increase was only 17% in 2009, the second year that the new "incentive" regime (SDE) was "running". Also from this graph it is evident, that that regime is hardly effective for (financial growth of) the PV-sector - if at all...

In light yellow columns the meagre budgets available/admitted to the basic PV researchers in the Netherlands. Despite their fame (among others, ECN!), they had to do with a minor sum: 3,53 million Euro in 2008, raised 67% (YOY growth percentages in yellow) to 5,89 million Euro in 2009.

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Fig. CBS 9. Work in PV in the Netherlands. Unity is "fte", which stands for "fulltime-equivalent", or one full-week work. This stands for 38 hours in the Netherlands (not necessarily one job, the Dutch have many split-jobs and/or part-time jobs). Light yellow: research (most with ECN in Petten, TU Eindhoven, University Nijmegen). Light blue: production. Mostly with Solland Solar on the border with Germany, however 89 jobs were cut in August of crisis year 2009. Jobs at the former Ubbink Solar Modules in Doesburg have also been lost as a result of a decision by owner Centrosolar resulting from the Econcern bankruptcy crisis. Scheuten Solar in Venlo is one of the bigger players in production, but number of employees in the Dutch (Venlo) branch is unknown (most production workers are in the Multisol® module factory in Gelsenkirchen and have to be allotted to the German market). Purple: "other". Perhaps related to the growing number of "new companies" offering solar modules and/or systems to consumers and/or installers. Little is known about many of these newcomers, many of them 100% internet resalers. Black columns are the totals for the previous-mentioned three categories. 566 in the final CBS report for 2008, increased to only 588 in the preliminary 2009 addition.

Regrettably, most of the data for 2009 have not been given by CBS due to "secrecy" clausules in contracts with the data providers. This, of course, makes this kind of statistics grossly superfluous and without any purpose. Polder PV tried to extrapolate the "trends" with a coarse Excel-calculated 3rd degree polynome (dashed curves), giving a rough indication what the spread in the results for 2009 could have been. In view of the total number of fte's, only 22 more than in 2008 accumulated in 2009 (hence: another "crisis year" for PV sector in the Netherlands), it is most likely that the biggest solar (cell) producer, Solland Solar, did not attract many new jobs in 2009. It is expected that, in addition to the surprising 15 new research fte's from 2008 to 2009, a few other "jobs" were with independent resalers, many of which are not a member of the Dutch branche organisation Holland Solar. Hence: more people may be "involved" with PV, but they will probably not be found in this very rough CBS statistic (the webmaster of Polder PV and almost all other PV website owners are also not represented, although it is almost a full-time "job" here in Leiden) ...

588 fte's is a hell of a lot less than the app. 63.000 people working in PV only in neighbouring world champion Germany (according to its branche organisation BSW, see pdf update for June 2010).

Discrepancy between CBS and CertiQ data.

There is a difference between the 2008 numbers from the CBS and the CertiQ data presented in the separate section (graphs). It amounts up to 1,7 MWp, peanuts in international terms, however "considerable" in the still small and permanently crippled Dutch market. There are several possible reasons for this difference, strongly related to the disappointment of private persons and/or companies in the bureaucracy of the new SDE "incentive" regime. Several individuals have openly admitted that, although they do have obtained a "permit" for the SDE, they will not redeem it, still buy solar panels, and will only have as a financial "incentive" the net metering bonus (which is different for each household, depending on the electricity contract). Others did not even bother to apply for the SDE, bought a system immediately, and are content that they have avoided lots of headaches.

This trend has grown stronger in 2009, as massive amounts of SDE applications haven been rejected due to ever-continuing state budget deficits (trend alarmingly increased in 2010, when several ten-thousands of applications were - or will be - rejected resulting from the application lottery...). Again, this is best illustrated with the difference between the CertiQ data and those of CBS. For 2009, CertiQ reported almost 6 MWp new "certified" (grid-connected) installations. CBS, however, reported 10,6 MWp grid-connected as being sold to installers in the Netherlands in that year (preliminary data presented in this section). The difference, approximately 4,6 MWp should represent grid-connected PV-systems without application or approval under the SDE regime, and probably not registered anywhere. It is possible, that, as ever more people become frustrated by the SDE lottery, together with growing acceptance of solar electricity as a viable alternative, that gap between the CBS and CertiQ will widen in coming years.

Certified production of photovoltaic electricity (PV) in the Netherlands (CertiQ data) status: end of October 2010

see figure captions for English explanation

Graphs (update October 2010, download date November 4, 2010)

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Figure 1. The accumulation of solar electricity generating producers as registered at the national office of CertiQ ("certified receiver of Guarantees of Origin for proven production of renewable electricity"), yellow curve (left Y-axis), and the calculated (Excel) growth of the number of producers per month, red curve (right Y-axis), respectively. The bizarre "dip" in the yellow curve (Jan. 2005) is the result of a non-specified "market player" withdrawing 199 PV-installations from the GO administration (upon request at CertiQ an explanation was not available). Only in the autumn of 2008, half a year after the start of a new "incentive regime" for renewable electricity including PV ("SDE"), the number of accepted GO receivers is starting to grow again, apparently with strong growth. It should be reminded, however, that as many as eight thousand applications were approved in 2008, valid for 18 MWp (in 2008 only systems were allowed in the range of 0,601 up till 3,5 kWp) ... In 2009 app. 2.500 new applications for the category 0,601 - 15 kWp were approved in August (a few applications still awaited approval at that time), and only 70 for the category > 15 - 100 kWp (both categories together maximized at 20 MWp). In late November 2009 the green light was given for a possible extra 850 "small" and 75 "large" 2009 applications (not "new money", but shift in budget), respectively. All added together, total number of approved applications (many of them still awaiting realisation...) appeared to accumulate (January 2010 review) in 11.554 "small" and 128 "large" approvals (max. 100 kWp installations allowed under the SDE regime...).

For 2010, the "small category" already received 17.000 applications on the very first day, and on June 1, 2010, it became clear that only 4.200 of them will be/have been rewarded with a letter of approval after a third "lottery", due to permanent State budget constraints (bulk of approvals posted in June 2010). On that same day (May 31) it became apparent that for the "large" category (>15 - 100 kWp installations) 35.000 applications arrived at the desk of the Agentschap NL bureau. In September 2010, the horrible - but highly predictable - news was published in an ultra-short notice by the subsidy "provider" Agentschap NL: For the small category only 4.200 of 17.000 applications materialized in an official "You have a GO" letter, the rest (almost 13.000 applications) had to be shredded (24,7% "successfull application-by-chance", but not yet "realisation"). Far worse, for the "big" category, only 131 of 35.000 applications were "approved" after lottery conditions never heard of. A lousy and exceptionally shameful "score" of barely 0,4%, generating bitter resentments among applicants and "potentially interested" investors. Besides, with the note: the lucky applicants mostly have not yet realized their plans, surprised as they may be by the sparsely provided green light letters ...

At the end of October 2010, including the 2008 and 2009 applications the "CertiQ-registered realisation" for these two SDE rounds still amounted to only 43,9 % of the total number of approved project applications approved sofar (if one already counts the approvals for SDE 2010 in the numbers, it is only 32,0%). No one knows the cumulative number of PV installations that have been realized anyway, since a growing number of households avoid the lottery and the SDE bureaucracy and still buy (albeit often relatively small) PV systems. The exact number of installations, as well as total new capacity realized, remains a mystery since most of these smaller systems have never been metered nor registered anywhere. For 2009, based upon the data from CertiQ and by CBS (if correct), it must be concluded that at least 40% of total capacity "sold to end-consumers" is realized outside the unstimulating national SDE regime.

Note: Graphs are made by Polder PV from publicly available monthly reports by CertiQ, the Dutch organisation (part of main net manager TenneT) that controls certified production of renewable electricity. See the source listing on the CertiQ website.

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Figure 2. In this graph next to the accumulated number of "certified" solar electricity producers (yellow, left Y-axis), in dark green (right Y-axis) the accumulating number of issued (proven production) "Guarantees of Origin" is presented. It is important to realize that each certificate stands for the production of 1 MWh, which is considerable because of the relative small PV-system sizes in the Netherlands. Because only little production under the new SDE incentive regime* has been realized in two years time (e.g.: formally registered on a separate, certified meter), there has been hardly any effect on the growth of the certificates issued, despite the relative strong growth in the number of small (2008: system maximization 3,5 kWp, 2009: 2 categories, max. 15 or 100 kWp) certified producers. Strangely, after a flattening of the curve at the beginning of 2010, the March report suddenly showed a strong increase (app. 4,6%) in new certificates, continued later. This "event" does not seem to reflect actual strong growth, but more likely is to be contributed to highly discontinuous release policy of data by the net managers, and the actual formalization of the related "green" certificates by CertiQ. That process remains unclear.

*Open since April 1, 2008, the then existing certified installations come from the previous "MEP" regime that was closed for new installations in August 2006. Most approvals were issued after a long, 26 week waiting period somewhere in the Autumn of 2008. Realisation however, is probably only a third of the approvals issued (precise data are not known).

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Figure 3. As in Figure 2, but now with the calculated new Guarantees of Origin issued each month, blue curve (right Y-axis). Season-related production originally was clearly recognizable in the past, but later the graph becomes blurred, possibly by "lumping" of GO's or administrative procedures not following the real production of the PV-installations involved*. In this graph there has been only a weak, summer-season (high production) related effect of the growing number of registered and accepted GO receiving producers of solar electricity as of the Autumn of 2008. Despite a fairly "large" number of newly registered (but small) PV-installations, certificate production for solar electricity per month dramatically collapsed at the end of 2009/start of 2010, only reviving slightly in February. March, surprisingly, showed a high release of new certificates that somehow must have been accumulating in the previous period and that cannot be related to actual (meagre) installation growth (the correlation between the two curves shown here is almost absent). Also in April a "considerable" number of certificates were issued, followed, however, by another dramatic decrease in May and June. At the end of summer, finally, more GO's were issued on a monthly basis.

Please note that possibly 44 MWp (end of 2008 app. 34 MWp) of mostly small (in the order of 0,4-3 kWp) grid-connected PV-installations in the Netherlands is not represented in these graphs up till end of 2009, because they are not/never have been metered nor accepted following the GO schemes of CertiQ or its predecessor EnerQ...

* Actually, production on which GO's will be based, is artificially evenly distributed over the 12 months in the year by the net manager. Only after the "level" of 1 MWh is surpassed, apparently one certificate is being validated by CertiQ. Monthly reports of production meter positions by the PV owner are not accepted in the Netherlands, in stark contrast with Germany where PV system operators can bill the net mananger for the legally fixed feed-in tariffs on a monthly basis and physical production is known. The whole process in the Netherlands is exceptionally unclear and entirely based on only one measurement in the year, which can be done at any moment to the liking (and/or business-model) of the net manager...

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Figure 4. In this figure the number of new certified producers of solar electricity per month is presented (calculation from accumulated month values with Excel, red curve, left Y-axis), and the number of new Guarantees of Origin issued by CertiQ (idem, blue curve, right Y-axis). Again: as of yet hardly any structural impact of the number of new producers on the GO's actually issued (these are mainly issued for the existing producers from the old "MEP" scheme or even older protocols). Just a moderate increase in new GVO's issued/month is apparent since the start of the SDE on April 1 2008, although "output" fluctuates considerably (possibly strengthened by pitfalls resulting from certificate issuing policy). The trend was clearly downwards at the end of 2009, the second year of the new SDE "incentive" regime. A hefty "spike" for March 2010 comes as a surprise, as there seems to be no direct relation with the level of newcomers with certified installations each month. The issue rate in April remained at a relatively high level followed by another "dip" in May to June. August remained relatively lax with certificates issued, but a new record was given for new installation in the CertiQ administration. However, any kind of correlation with new producers registered with CertiQ seems to be almost non-existent, which is illustrated by the incomparable trends in the two curves.

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Figure 5. As in Figure 4, but now with the focus on the accumulation (dark green curve, left Y-axis), and the new GO's issued per month, respectively (blue curve, right Y-axis, unity GWh = 1.000 MWh = 1.000 certificates). For a long time, no dramatic, structural changes were visible in growth (even flattening of the growth curve), despite 2 full years of "new incentive regime" [SDE 2008/2009]. Only March and April 2010 showed a distinct increase in de certificates issued, also reflected in the accumulating curve. The peak, however, is smaller as the peak of October 2007, which appeared in the middle of a factual "non-incentive" period for PV in the Netherlands (since the previous regime, the "MEP", was killed on Friday, August 18, 2006)...

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Figure 6. A somewhat clearer picture revealing "increasing growth" for the number of GO's issued should become visible from the relative growth of the certificates issued in comparison with the previous month. Hence, in this graph again the "newly issued per month" curve is presented (dark blue curve, left Y-axis) in comparison with the curve in light-yellow (right Y-axis) that shows the relative percentual increase of the number of GO's issued as compared to the previous month. If there would be a regularly systematic issue policy of GVO's by CertiQ, based on physical monthly production, this should immediately result in an increase of the yellow curve as production of PV would start to take off. This clearly is not the case, as shown by the trendline (dark yellow). There has been a significant upward trend in May >>> June 2009, stabilizing after that period. The downward trend in the second half of 2009 finally started to flatten out in early 2010 and showed good growth in March till April 2010. Growth up till now remains lower than the average picture in the years 2003-2006 (when there was hardly any incentive at all, the MEP scheme only yielded a meagre extra 9,7 eurocent/kWh on top of the net metering price, which was totally non-stimulating, resulting in an almost dead market up till 2008). For clarity, a trend-line for the "new GO's per month" curve has been added in light-blue (Excel 3rd degree polynome). For months it showed a strong downward instead of an upward trend in the period in which a new "stimulation regime" was introduced, even with the new "spike" in new certificates in March 2010. Only in April-July 2010, two years after the start of the SDE regime, the curve has been flattening out, and only in recent months it is beginning to show a positive growth trend.

Accumulation of certified photovoltaic installation capacity (STC)

Note that X-axis and Y-axis change depending on report!

© CertiQ, October 2010 report, new style

2010: February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September

© CertiQ, January 2010 report, new style

© CertiQ, December 2009 report

Figure 7. X-scale "old-style", lower graph, running from start of 2004 up till end of 2009. Scale "new-style", upper graphs, shifted to a starting point at February 2007 (Jan. 2010 report, 2nd graph from below), and November 2007 (October 2010 report, upper graph). Note differences in X-axis and Y-axis ranges! These graphs come from the (actual) monthly statistics pages on the CertiQ website. The old graph, which was hard to read, has been slightly modified with a grid and red lines by Polder PV to clarify actual MWp increase. It gives the accumulated certified PV capacity registered by CertiQ. The upper horizontal (dashed) lines indicate the "accumulated" nominal power as given in the month report illustrated (apparently not always synchronous with the red curve - "Vermogen" - in the graph). Since the years of immobility on a non-stimulated Dutch PV-market only some growth has become visible again as of early 2009 (rise of flattened curve in the right part of the graph, only 9 Months after the start of the SDE on April 1, 2008, vertical red line). Extrapolating the accumulation reached December 2009 resulted in an estimate of some 6,3 MWp of new installations "accepted" by CertiQ since the start of the new incentive regime (SDE) as of April 1, 2008. In a later communication by CertiQ's owner TenneT it appeared to have been 5,984 MWp for 2009 only, the year that most "SDE installations" have been realized sofar (registered in the CertiQ database)..

Very strange things happening. In the official SDE incentive period (as of April 1, 2008) only 5.128 new solar electricity producers have been certified/accepted by CertiQ according to their published monthly reports up till the end of September 2010. However, the actual "capacity accumulated" ("Vermogen") mentioned by CertiQ and indicated in their published graphs sometimes fluctuates in a very strange manner:

¹ Number mentioned by press-officer of TenneT (CertiQ is a subsidiary of TenneT), January 2010. Other data
in this column are from the monthly reports in 2010. Numbers show MWp accumulation at the end of the month.

If the data in the CertiQ reports are correct, we must conclude that in March 2010, 0,13 MWp of brand-new installation capacity reported to CertiQ (via misty protocols) suddenly seemed to have disappeared since the end of December 2009 (and even - 2,468 MWp related to the accumulation reported for Feb. 2010...). While at the end of January 2010 there should have been a "plus" of 3,511 MWp. In April up till October there was again "growth", albeit only at an average rate of app. 1,05 MWp per month. End of October approximately 7,2 MWp of new certified grid-connected installations had accumulated for the year 2010. That is over four times less capacity than the average monthly growth in Flanders up till October in the same year. No explanation is given by CertiQ for these bizarre accumulation numbers sometimes going downwards instead of upwards while number of installations at the same time show steady, slow growth. See also the graphs below, Fig. 7a:

The 3,5 MWp of installations that would have been added in the January 2010 report (36% of total accumulation in 20 months), as well as the apparent "negative growth" (?) in the months February and March 2010 were even more curious, since in these months the number of new installations has been growing like in previous months, albeit in a modest tempo (see Fig. 1)!

If one considers the new numbers in the September 2010 report as "correct", the 4.828 new SDE installations (app. 12,2 MWp as interpolated from the data published by CertiQ) would have an average nominal (STC) capacity of app. 2,5 kWp. Note that an increasing number of larger PV-systems could have heavily influenced this outcome. Despite all high-strung political rhetoric concerning the "new" SDE incentives, and a slight increase in pace, still not too many installations have been realized under this "stimulation" regime, only app. 161 on average per month in two years and six months time. Because of the still small numbers, every larger installation (max. 100 kWp under SDE conditions) will have a serious impact on the average system size calculated. Polder PV expects that several larger installations (15-100 kWp) will come on-line in 2010. See also this webpage for a recent example. Added to this Scheuten Solar put a 100 kWp installation on their headquarters in Venlo, and an installation of app. 240 kWp has been realised in Sleen (Drenthe) on a new building on the premises of a water purification plant (however only 100 kWp could be used under the allowance dating from the SDE 2009 regime, short comment here). How many realisations will follow in the present and coming years remains written in the stars.

More curious phenomena. Despite the growth in newly admitted "SDE installations" (244 in May 2009), the total capacity in the certified scheme seemed to have become slightly lower in May 2009 (see image by CertiQ), a possible error (?) by CertiQ since the resulting small "peak" does not appear anymore in the June 2009 - and later - images. An earlier "dip" in the old graph (2005) represented a bizarre and unspecified "withdrawal" from almost 200 installations from the certified installation pool in the CertiQ database. It shows that even the CertiQ data remain exceptionally unreliable and a bad marker for "proven PV market development" in the Netherlands.

Note, again, that the graphs presented above do not show the "non-certified" PV-installations in the Netherlands. Eur'ObservER estimated 58,4 MWp for on-grid systems in the Netherlands for the end of 2009 (the only category that matters with respect to "certification protocols", see report ready for download on this web page). CBS reported, however 62,5 MWp in accumulation for grid-connected (year report 2009). Subtracting the approximately 18,4 MWp accumulated in the CertiQ database for that year (according to spokesman of TenneT), there should at least be approximately 44 MWp of non-certified grid-connected PV installations in the Netherlands, if the above-mentioned data are considered reliable (end 2009, factor 2,4 and a half more non-certified than certified installations). These PV-systems, including the 1,34 kWp installation of the webmaster of Polder PV, have only "net metering" [Dutch: "salderen"] as an incentive (mostly, but not always, added to subsidies for buying the modules in old, abolished incentive regimes during the first years of the new millennium). There are also a number of installations that never got subsidies of any kind, that only have net metering. Examples: Niels Thijssen from the northern part of the province of Limburg, Jeroen Haringman in Hilversum with partially second-hand modules, Michael Stegen's impressive 5,4 kWp Sunpower installation, family Konijn's huge 29,04 kWp installation in Purmerend, etc. An increasing number of PV-system buyers (actual numbers unknown) avoid the stifling SDE bureaucracy. Hence: not represented in the CertiQ figures or databanks. Even worse: their production of renewable electricity does not count in the official realisation of the "national climate goals", which is absolutely bizarre considering the deplorable status of the Netherlands with respect to actual production of renewable electricity.

Growth of PV in the Netherlands in relative terms: If correct, the roughly 12,2 MWp growth in the "incentive" period April 2008 up till September 2010 (30 months, status according to actual accumulated STC power mentioned, 24,123 MWp) suggests, that on average approximately 407 kWp/month would have been realized sofar (as registered by CertiQ). That remains an astonishing low capacity growth for a stifling rich (and sunny) western country such as the Netherlands with 16,6 million inhabitants and over 7 million households. The comparable Belgium region of (Dutch-speaking) Flanders only (population 2,7 times smaller than the Netherlands) has added 459 MWp in 25 months time, hence on average over 18 MWp a month since April of 2008, a factor 45 times higher...

^^^ Bizarre grafiek ontleend aan de maandelijkse "accumulatie" (in MWp) van gecertificeerde PV-installaties in de maandrapporten van CertiQ (januari 2010: eerste vermelding). Het cijfer van december 2009 (gearceerd) is ontleend aan een mededeling van de pervoorlichter van TenneT. I.p.v. groei van capaciteit lijken de CertiQ cijfers in de maanden feb-mrt 2010 juist een (forse) afname daarvan weer te geven, wat niet "kan" of "zou mogen" kloppen. Eind september 2010 was de accumulatie 24,123 MWp, 5,7 MWp hoger dan die van eind december 2009. Ondanks de lichte groei een blijvend povere prestatie voor het rijke Nederland. Onvergelijkbaar met de buurlanden die als PV-kometen voort blijven scheuren met tientallen tot honderden MWp per maand met nieuwe PV-systemen.

^^^ The open columns with dashed blue rim are interpolations of the month values considered for Flanders (Belgium) because VREG (for a long time with structural workforce problems) apparently has not always been able to publish a report each month. Monthly growth in the Netherlands (as derived from CertiQ data) shown in green columns. Note the considerable differences between monthly additions of PV-capacity (MWp) in both PV-markets. Also note: Flanders has a population that is a factor 2,7 smaller than that in the Netherlands. The highly unlikely "negative growth rates" in the Dutch columns for February and March 2010 have sofar not been commented upon by TenneT nor by its daughter company CertiQ. Difference between monthly additions of PV-capacities reported in Flanders and in the Netherlands has been a huge factor 83 in July 2010. In the last pair of columns in adapted colours the average monthly growth has been given for both PV-markets. Difference between the two average numbers for monthly growth in 2010 is a factor 54 in the advantage of Flanders.

Nieuwe data in CertiQ rapport: geaccumuleerd vermogen

^^^ Screenshot of CertiQ January 2010 month report. New is the actual nominal capacity registered ("Vermogen") in MWp, 21,957 MWp for PV (red arrowhead). Much more than could be expected from the December 2009 report and recent comments by the press officer from TenneT (owner of CertiQ)... Average system size of the 3760 installations in this report (note: including old "MEP" clients such as 2,3 MWp Floriade roof and 674 kWp Ecopark Waalwijk!) is 5,8 kWp. See also screendump of February 2010 report below! Average for this report's accumulation (old and new certified systems) amounts to 5,8 kWp/installation. Note that old installations like Floriade 2,3 MWp and 674 kWp Ecopark Waalwijk are among them...

^^^ Screenshot of CertiQ February 2010 month report. Suddenly, the actual nominal capacity registered ("Vermogen") in MWp, has dropped from the 21,957 MWp in Januari (see graph above) to the present 20,784 MWp for the 3.885 "certified" installations accumulated sofar (red arrowhead). No explanation has been given for this unlikely "negative growth scenario" under a new "incentive" regime... Average for this report's accumulation (old and new certified systems) amounts to 5,3 kWp/installation.

Yearly CertiQ data (from month reports)

Figure 8. Results of CertiQ monthly reports lumped into data per year and, in dashed columns at the right, average of the period under consideration (2003-2009). Data status: January 2010. On the left Y-axis the number of new certified PV-installations per year resulting from subtracting the accumulation of installations in the December reports (data valid as of January 1 of each year), columns in blue. On the right Y-axis the number of Guarantees of Origin (GO's) issued by CertiQ for the year under consideration (1 GO stands for 1 MWh, 1.000 for 1 GWh). Data obtained by extracting the accumulated GO's issued in the December reports; green columns. Note the many new PV-installations in 2009, resulting from a new but bureaucratic subsidy regime (started on April 1, 2008). These are, however, mostly small systems of max. 2 kWp. Impact of the installation growth on GO's issued is hardly discernable, even in 2009. This probably is the result from delays in certificate validation for that year, and the fact that small installations need a long time before even one certificate (= 1 MWh) can be accounted for by CertiQ. Note that growth of certificates issued already started two to three years before the new "incentive regime". It is most probable that for the year 2009 CertiQ will register more GO's, accumulated as net managers file their interpolated "monthly production" based on one measurement in a one-year period.

Note that despite the enormous "boom" in new PV installations in 2003 (see CBS data elsewhere on this web page), almost none of these installations have been recorded as "certified" in the CertiQ database.

Feiten update maandrapport 1-9-2010 (overzicht september 2010, download van CertiQ site dd. 10 oktober 2010)

• Aantal zonnestroom producenten geregistreerd bij CertiQ: 5.444 (augustus 2010: 5.251).
  
  
• Vermoedelijk aantal SDE klanten: 5.444 - 616 (aantal bij CertiQ ingeschreven installaties direct voor de start van de SDE 2008) = 4.828 (88,7% van totaal; augustus 2010: 4.635)***.
  
  
• Bijgekomen t.o.v. vorige maand: 193 stuks (augustus 2010: maand"record" onder SDE condities, 406). Let wel, in Vlaanderen is die volumegroei gemiddeld ruim 3.300 installaties per maand gedurende het laatste anderhalve jaar...
  
  
• Groei t.o.v. vorige maand: 3,7% (in augustus 2010 was die groei: 8,4%).
  
  
• Percentage geaccumuleerde aantal SDE producenten t.o.v. referentie van in 2008 aantal door - destijds - SenterNovem beschikte aanvragen (8.033 stuks voor dat jaar) zou zijn geweest: 60,1% (in augustus 2010 was dat: 57,7%). Aangezien elke volgende maand met zekerheid steeds meer SDE 2009 klanten het "CertiQ [publicatie] stadium" zal hebben bereikt, en waarschijnlijk inmiddels ook alweer SDE 2010 klanten in de CertiQ cijfers opduiken, klopt deze berekening echter van geen kant meer: zie daarom nieuwe berekening onderaan.
  
  
• Cumulatieve hoeveelheid door CertiQ uitgegeven GVO's zonnestroom sinds 1 juli 2001: 42,602 GWh (in augustus 2010 was dat: 41,772 GWh).
  
  
• Daarvan is 10,098 GWh voor "eigen gebruik" toegekend en 32,504 GWh is "bewezen" (bemeten) ingevoed op het distributienet (verhouding 23,7% resp. 76,3%). NB: het door CertiQ vastgestelde percentage "eigen gebruik" groeit al sinds de start van de registraties in maart 2009: toen was het nog slechts 17,0%. Dit heeft mogelijk te maken met het feit dat bij mensen met Ferrarismeters alle geregistreerde opwek (bruto productie meter) fictief als "eigen verbruik" wordt gezien (wat natuurlijk niet de realiteit is) cq. als zodanig wordt "toegekend".****
  
  
• Gemiddeld zijn er vanaf 1 januari 2003 tot 1 april 2008 (start SDE) 6 nieuwe zonnestroom producenten/maand geregistreerd bij CertiQ (groeipercentage 2,1%/maand).
  
  
• Gemiddeld zijn er vanaf 1 april 2008 (officiële start SDE) 161 nieuwe zonnestroom producenten/maand geregistreerd bij CertiQ (groeipercentage 7,9%/maand).
  
  
• Bovenstaande getallen waren voor augustus 2010 nog 160 resp. 7,8%/maand.
  
  
• Eind september 2010 was de totale geaccumuleerde gecertificeerde PV-capaciteit in Nederland volgens het maandrapport 23,447 MWp (eind augustus volgens opgave CertiQ: 24,123 MWp). Een groei van 676 kWp in een maand tijd (22 kWp/dag, grofweg 109 modules van 200 Wp per stuk). In januari 2010 zou er volgens de maandrapportage nog 3,5 MWp in 1 maand tijd zijn bijgekomen (op basis van een mededeling van de persvoorlichter van TenneT over de capaciteit toename in 2009 en de status eind december van dat jaar: 18,446 MWp). Waarna er weer iets van 2,5 MWp verdwenen zou zijn in de maanden feb.-mrt. (veel onduidelijkheden hier).
  
  
• In 2009 is 43% van de totale "afzet aan eindgebruikers" (CBS cijfers) buiten de SDE om, en dus ook buiten de CertiQ registraties om gerealiseerd. Zie detail analyse van CBS jaarcijfers voor PV in Nederland van 2009, bericht van 21 juli 2010.
  
  
• Nieuw geregistreerde capaciteit in september 2010: 24,123 - 23,477 = 0,676 MWp (22,5 kWp/dag). Dat was in augustus 2010 nog 1,5 MWp (48,4 kWp/dag).
  
  
• Uit groei aantallen installaties en groei capaciteit in september 2010 volgt een gemiddelde nieuw bijgeplaatste systeemgrootte van 676 (kWp)/193 (nieuwe PV-systemen) = 3,5 kWp/installatie.
  
  
• Volgens de gegevens in de CertiQ maandrapporten was de gemiddelde nieuwe systeemgrootte tussen 1 januari en 30 september 2010 3,04 kWp/installatie.
  
  
• Gemiddeld zijn er vanaf 1 januari 2003 tot 1 april 2008 (start SDE) 347 nieuwe GVO's/maand geregistreerd bij CertiQ (groeipercentage 3,8%/maand).
  
  
• Gemiddeld zijn er vanaf 1 april 2008 (start SDE) tot en met september 2010 621 nieuwe GVO's/maand geregistreerd bij CertiQ (groeipercentage 1,9%/maand).
  
  
• Bovenstaande getallen waren voor augustus 2010 nog 614 resp. 1,9%/maand.
  
  
• Nieuwe berekening door totstandkoming van de nieuwe populatie "SDE 2009 beschikten" (aanpassing van bericht medio augustus in bespreking beschikkingen lijsten SDE 2008/2009): 3.521 "klein" plus 128 "groot" = 3.649 totaal. In totaal zijn er nu volgens de laatste cijfers 11.682 zonnestroom aanvragen (SDE 2008 + 2009) "beschikt" (SDE 2010 is pas vanaf eind april 2010 qua toewijzingen [categorie "klein"] op gang aan het komen, is nog weinig van bekend). Van deze hoeveelheid beschikkingen is met de CertiQ cijfers voor september 2010 voor de SDE 2008-2009 nog steeds slechts 41,3% ingevuld (60,1% als alleen van SDE 2008 uitgegaan zou worden, wat echter door de "vervuiling" door de ook meegetelde latere beschikkingen vanaf 2009 geen realistisch percentage meer is). De verwachting is dat dit percentage sterker gaat stijgen zodra de eerste grotere aantallen SDE 2009 beschikten daadwerkelijk werkende bruto productiemeters in de meterkast gekregen zullen hebben, het hele administratieve circus tussen netbeheerder, CertiQ en SenterNovem Agentschap NL hebben doorlopen, en uiteindelijk als "geaccepteerd" in de database van CertiQ zullen zijn of worden opgenomen. Vooralsnog blijft zelfs die groei nog steeds aan de lage kant. Ook moet rekening gehouden gaan worden met in de aantallen op te nemen installaties die reeds eerder dit jaar zijn beschikt voor SDE 2010, en die mogelijk ook al bij CertiQ zijn geregistreerd. Een zo'n installatie, een fraai monokristallijn 8,14 kWp systeem, werd eind augustus 2010 openbaar gemaakt. Als de netbeheerder een beetje heeft voortgemaakt met de bruto productiemeter, zou het systeem inmiddels bij CertiQ aangemeld moeten kunnen zijn.
  
  De vraag is ook of de SDE 2008 verder nog fors zal groeien qua daadwerkelijk ingevulde aanvragen. De inschatting van Polder PV is: die 8.033 beschikkingen gaan zeker nooit allemaal worden ingevuld, zelfs al melden zich af en toe nog steeds sommige "beschikten" die alsnog hebben laten installeren (of het zelf hebben gedaan). Mogelijk gaan er een paar duizend van die met absurd veel moeite tot stand gekomen beschikkingen verworden tot een waardeloos vod papier waar niet meer naar wordt omgekeken en ergens in een bureaulade liggen te verstoffen. Formeel hebben de indieners voor SDE 2008 4 jaar tijd voor invulling na toekenning van de beschikking (dus ongeveer tot oktober 2012), voor SDE 2009 en 2010 aanvragers/beschikten is dat teruggebracht naar anderhalf jaar. SDE 2009 aanvragers hebben dan tot ongeveer februari 2011 de tijd voor daadwerkelijke realisatie (afhankelijk van exacte datum van de beschikking, en eventuele eenmalige door Agentschap NL geaccepteerde verschuiving van de realisatie datum). Gezien het feit dat SDE 2010 beschikkingen vanaf ongeveer eind april uitgegeven blijken te worden (categorie "klein"), zouden de eigenaren daarvan tot ongeveer eind oktober 2011 tot invulling over moeten gaan om nog binnen de realisatie periode te blijven (het grootste deel zou volgens zeggen van Agenstschap NL in juni 2010 uitgegeven moeten zijn). De paar beschikkingen (131 stuks uit de stortvloed van op 31 mei 2010 binnengekomen 35.000 aanvragen) voor categorie SDE 2010 "groot" zouden mogelijk op zijn vroegst ongeveer begin augustus uitgegeven kunnen zijn, etcetera: Het wordt allemaal een ongelofelijk complexe warboel om de "invulling" van de beschikkingen uit verschillende jaren te volgen.
  
  
• Voor verdere info over het SDE jaar 2009, zie ook de aparte pagina met o.a. uitvoerige bespreking van de oorspronkelijke en gereviseerde CertiQ jaarrapporten en de jaarverslagen. En enkele artikelen op de website Duurzameenergiethuis.nl met enkele destijds nog niet bekende marktdata. Het bij CertiQ ingeschreven gecertificeerde vermogen was volgens de persvoorlichter van CertiQ eigenaar TenneT in 2009 gegroeid van 12,462 naar 18,446 MW, dus 5,984 MWp in een jaar tijd. Dit zal waarschijnlijk nog steeds niet het fysiek netgekoppelde (SDE) vermogen blijken te zijn in dat jaar, gezien de lange administratieve weg tussen plaatsing van de bruto productiemeter en het felbegeerde (?) vinkje in de CertiQ database. Er kunnen dus nog met terugwerkende kracht nog steeds systemen bij komen, al is nog niet te voorzien hoeveel, en wanneer die bijschrijving dan wel officieel "beeindigd" zou gaan worden. Sterker nog, het is ook nog steeds mogelijk dat het geaccumuleerde vermogen van 2008 aangepast wordt, waardoor het totale volume voor 2009 nog steeds niet definitief is vastgesteld (zie de aparte pagina voor detail analyse).

Deze typische, "grillige" en blijvend teleurstellende Nederlandse cijfers altijd in gedachten houden als u de recente, volledig gedocumenteerde marktgroei van de oosterburen in beschouwing neemt: 2008 >1,9 GWp; 2009 3,8 GWp; alleen al het "slechtste" eerste kwartaal 2010 alweer 715 MWp, de eerste acht maanden inclusief record maand juni (2,1 GWp) in totaal alweer 4,9 GWp (voorlopige data Bundesnetzagentur). Goed voor (status 2009 marktprognose BDEW, pdf, mogelijk zwaar onderschat vanwege explosieve eindejaar-spurt met nieuwe capaciteit in BRD) 5.616 GWh op jaarbasis, wat neerkomt op ongeveer 468 GWh gemiddeld per maand nieuwe opwek aan zonnestroom. Dat is ruim 11 maal zoveel nieuwe Duitse fysieke zonnestroom productie per maand als er totaal in de Nederlandse certificatenregeling is geaccumuleerd sinds juli 2001... NB: de feitelijke totale zonnestroom productie in Nederland, inclusief de talloze niet gecertificeerde installaties, is een groot mysterie, ondanks extreem speculatieve cijfers van het CBS daarover (natter vinger werk is haast niet mogelijk). Zie daarvoor mijn kritische kanttekeningen bij de CBS cijfers elders op deze pagina.

*** Berekend door het aantal geaccumuleerde GVO producenten door CertiQ geregistreerd aan het eind van de besproken maand af te trekken van het aantal geaccumuleerde producenten geregistreerd eind maart 2008 (vlak voor start SDE 2008 op 1 april van dat jaar). Deze berekening kon alleen maar redelijk "safe" gedaan worden totdat de impact van de SDE 2009 daadwerkelijk bij CertiQ gestalte ging krijgen. Aangezien pas eind juli 2009 de (in totaal 3.649) beschikkingen voor in 2009 gedane aanvragen uitgegeven zijn, en er nog steeds lange wachttijden zijn bij de netbeheerders voor het plaatsen van bruto productiemeters, zouden zelfs de reeds na 6 april aan het net gekoppelde nieuwe systemen onder die regeling nog minimaal een maand hebben moeten wachten voordat ze waarschijnlijk een in werking gezette bruto productiemeter hebben. Vanaf dat moment is het natuurlijk een warboel geworden met de cijfers, want toen gingen verschillende SDE beschikkingen (met elk weer onvergelijkbare categorieën) volledig door elkaar heen lopen, ook bij CertiQ. Vanaf dat moment (??? augustus-september 2009 ???) kan er dan ook alleen maar gekeken worden naar de "accumulerende impact" van de SDE regeling, niet meer naar het effect van elk jaar, omdat de cijfers daarvan niet bekend zijn (die liggen bij Agentschap NL/SenterNovem en lijken niet te worden vrijgegeven).

Op 1 maart 2010 is de derde SDE ronde (vertraagd) ingaan en direct massaal overtekend, te beginnen met de "categorie klein" (gecapt op het traject 1,0 tm. 7,5 kWp). Voor de "grotere" projecten kon pas vanaf 31 mei 2010 worden ingetekend, en dat werd op gigantische schaal gedaan met 35.000 aanvragen, waarvan er slechts 131 stuks "mogen" doorgaan... Vanaf eind april 2010 (eerste beschikkingen verstuurd door

Basic information: CBS data and monthly reports on website of CertiQ

http://www.cbs.nl
http://www.certiq.nl/ (Cijfers en overzichten >>> Statistisch overzicht CertiQ)

CertiQ year report for 2009, see separate webpage.

Other references

http://www.solarbuzz.com/EUE09.htm

Disclaimer. Graphs and data presented on this page and the website Polder PV do not have a legal status. Please refer to the original sources for clarification. This information page is part of a non-commercial private undertaking to enhance public awareness of national and global development in the solar energy industry. Please contact the webmaster if you want to use the graphs made by him from the raw data.

Updates:

7 mei 2009, 12 mei 2009 (incl. voorlopige CBS cijfers 2008), 5 juni 2009, 6 juli 2009, 5 augustus 2009, 3 september 2009, 18 september 2009 (definitieve CBS cijfers 2008), 25 september 2009 (foutje hersteld), 7 oktober 2009, 5 november 2009, 4 december 2009, 6 januari 2010, 15 januari 2010, 3 februari 2010, 9 maart 2010, 27 april 2010, 21 mei 2010, 26 juni 2010, 8 juli 2010, 21 juli 2010 (update CBS data sectie 1 op deze pagina, stand 2009 "voorlopig"), 9 augustus 2010 (CertiQ update juli), 6 september 2010 (CertiQ augustus), 28 oktober 2010 (CertiQ september).